Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $62,123$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,503.5}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(59,503.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,776$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.89 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,535.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,535.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,209$ on 2020-07-08

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $288,511$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(5.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{279,400.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 53.9)}}\) (asimptote \(279,400.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,602$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(9.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,410.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.6)}}\) (asimptote \(42,410.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $242,531$ on 2020-07-08

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $252,513$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(8.4 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{239,120.3}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(239,120.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,396$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(9.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,591.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(27,591.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $73,741$ on 2020-07-08

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $242,149$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(7.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,823.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(234,823.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,914$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(9.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,958.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(33,958.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,595$ on 2020-07-08

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $73,858$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,424.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 105.2)}}\) (asimptote \(102,424.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,482$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(984 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,289.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,289.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68,376$ on 2020-07-08

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $206,072$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(5.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{191,326.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(191,326.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,936$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(8.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,010.5}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(29,010.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $98,356$ on 2020-07-08

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,959$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,303.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(48,303.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,154$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,033.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,033.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,618$ on 2020-07-08

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,542$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(6.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,137.8}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(25,137.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,738$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(423 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,692.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,692.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $440$ on 2020-07-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Estonia recovered 96%
Denmark recovered 92%
Germany recovered 91%
Italy recovered 87%
Hungary recovered 64%
Belarus recovered 57%
Poland recovered 29%

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,003$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(699 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,899.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 33.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,899.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(29.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68.2}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 24.3)}}\) (asimptote \(68.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $52$ on 2020-07-08

Denmark⮸

Population $5,792,202$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,101$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,520.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(12,520.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $609$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(204 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{591.1}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(591.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $290$ on 2020-07-08

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $198,699$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(6.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,152.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(185,152.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,046$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,752.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,752.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,500$ on 2020-07-08

Hungary⮸

Population $9,660,351$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,210$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,076.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,076.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $589$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(127 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{571.2}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(571.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $736$ on 2020-07-08